| Set your calendars for the next round of bilateral critical minerals dramas between the US and China. |
| The macro trend is clear. Increased electrification, tokenization, and AI will drive dramatically increased demand for critical minerals. But shifting supply chains and geo-economic positioning deliver persistent price pressures to the critical minerals sector. Gallium seems set to deliver the next round of inflection points this month. |
| Two Critical Minerals Dates To Watch – Gallium Inflection Points |
| 📅27 November 2026: The day after Thanksgiving – when most Americans are still recovering from their feast – the Chinese export ban on gallium is set to resume unless Beijing takes action to suspend it. This occurred once before: the original export ban was suspended for one year on November 2026. |
| Could the suspension be extended for a second year? Obviously, yes. But the situation is likely a bargaining chip in the broader trade negotiations between the US and China. |
| 📅10 January 2027: Earlier this autumn, US Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that China and the US had agreed on a truce in their trade war, extending to 10 January, 2027. The truce suspended for one year US export restrictions regarding majority-owned foreign affiliates, effectively enabling Chinese-related companies to continue exporting to the United States often through transshipment hubs. |
| A reciprocal trade truce would, in theory, imply that China’s export ban regarding gallium might also be extended. But no specific statement has yet been made on this point in Beijing. |
| What Comes Next – Negotiations and Maybe Headlines |
| WILL the suspension be extended? This is not yet clear. |
| ☑️On the plus side, the United States has spent the last 12 months successfully launching a rival critical minerals supply chain initiative (the “Pax Silica”) which now counts over 25 signatories around the world. But it will take years — well past the Trump Presidency — until alternative supplies can reach American manufacturers at the scale required for uninterrupted production. |
| ❎And then we need to consider today’s Congressional election outcomes. The last two years of every President’s tenure during his second term in office are “lame duck.” This can mean diminished domestic power even if the Congress remains within the same party as the White House. Divided government and a vigorous opposition in Congress can make it harder for a President to cut deals. But on critical minerals, strong bipartisan consensus exists for taking serious action, so it is not yet clear that the midterm elections will adversely impact the US critical minerals policy agenda. |
| 🌏The geo-economic competition is not merely about critical minerals. For example, the Philippines Semiconductor and Electronics Industries in the Philippines Foundation (SEIPI) estimates that the Pax Silica framework could generate up to $70bn in foreign direct investment and create nearly 1m high-quality domestic jobs. This kind of economic link in the shadow of the Belt and Roads Initiative will attract attention in Beijing. Will it create incentives for increased bilateral critical minerals trade between the US and China? We are about to find out. |
| Might government negotiations trigger headlines that move markets between now and the end of the month? Of course. But it is also possible that the suspension of the export ban could be extended quietly, as part of a broader bilateral negotiation. |
| Implications for Corporates and Investors — the Gallium Supply Chain |
A broad range of firms and industries could be caught in the diplomatic cross-fire.
See the infographic on the left. Download it and keep it for ready reference if the policy and/or markets enter into a reaction function this month.
Hiccups in the steady supply of gallium from China of course could hit a broad range of advanced manufacturing sectors and a large percentage of publicly traded companies. Uncertainty regarding supply can also of course impact the price of the raw material with downstream effects on product pricing.
So set your calendars and be on the alert for the smallest of news stories regarding gallium between now and the end of November.
This insight was discovered this morning when reading the daily Critical Minerals Briefing.
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